Scorecasting Economists

Premier League, R33+R31 (23-24 Apr)

 

Is Wednesday night the title decider? Man City travel across town to their ‘quieter’ neighbours Man Utd. Before Utd’s catastrophic dip in form, Liverpool fans would have had considerably greater hope that their arch-enemies could play a hand in helping them winning the title. But surely City will just brush Utd aside tomorrow night. RED, the Model, thinks there is a good chance of this, with 54% chance of a City win, and a most likely scoreline of 0-1 (13%).

There are 3 other midweek games, and out forecasts are below.

Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Spurs Brighton 1-0 14 66 14
Watford Southampton 2-1 9 53 22
Manchester Utd Manchester City 0-1 13 22 54
Wolves Arsenal 0-1 10 32 41
  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw

Lower Leagues, R44 (April 22-23)

Three games to go (for most teams). What’s left up for grabs?

It’s still Barnsley, Portsmouth or Sunderland for second in League Two. The scrap at the bottom is looking clearer. One of Southend, Scunthorpe, Walsall or Wimbledon. Assuming Wycombe reach 50 points by disposing of Walsall 1-0 (11%).

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Mon Blackpool Fleetwood 1-0 16% 43% 30%
Mon Bradford Gillingham 1-2 9% 33% 40%
Mon Bristol R Rochdale 1-0 12% 58% 19%
Mon Charlton Scunthorpe 1-0 17% 66% 14%
Mon Peterborough Sunderland 0-1 10% 28% 45%
Mon Plymouth Barnsley 0-2 11% 21% 54%
Mon Portsmouth Coventry 1-0 14% 59% 18%
Mon Shrewsbury Oxford 1-0 14% 42% 31%
Mon Southend Burton 0-1 8% 28% 46%
Mon Wycombe Walsall 1-0 11% 50% 24%
Tue Doncaster Accrington 1-0 14% 63% 16%
Tue Luton AFC Wimb 2-0 16% 68% 13%

In League Two, Exeter’s bad Friday has given realistic hope to the chasing pack. Will they take advantage? Stevenage are best placed to, hosting the Grecians. RED expects Stevenage to win 1-0 (10%).

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Bury Northampton 2-1 10% 51% 24%
Crawley Notts Co 1-0 11% 48% 25%
Forest Green Cambridge U 1-0 13% 61% 17%
Grimsby Carlisle 0-1 11% 34% 38%
Lincoln Tranmere 1-0 13% 51% 24%
Macclesfield Newport Co 0-1 9% 32% 41%
MK Dons Port Vale 1-0 17% 57% 19%
Morecambe Cheltenham 0-1 9% 33% 39%
Oldham Mansfield 1-0 10% 38% 34%
Stevenage Exeter 1-0 10% 42% 31%
Swindon Crewe 1-0 11% 47% 27%
Yeovil Colchester 0-1 12% 29% 44%

Championship, R44 (22 Apr, 2019)

Norwich and Leeds both dropped points on Good Friday, as the potential riches of the Premier League get closer. Along with Sheffield Utd, who are also in the automatic promotion picture, these three teams all have away fixtures on Monday. RED fancies Sheffield and Norwich to win at Hull and Stoke, but the news is less good for Leeds, who face a tricky fixture at Brentford. The Model forecasts this one to end 1-0 (10%).

Derby County are just about clinging on to playoff hopes. But they absolutely must beat QPR at home on Monday. RED gives them a 57% chance of doing just that, and the most likely outcome is 1-0 (12%).

The rest of the Model’s forecasts for R44 (22 April) of the English Championship are in the table below:

Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Aston Villa Millwall 1-0 13 60 17
Blackburn Bolton 1-0 17 64 15
Brentford Leeds 1-0 10 37 35
Derby QPR 1-0 12 57 20
Hull Sheff Utd 0-1 11 30 43
Ipswich Swansea 0-1 17 26 47
Notts Forest Middlesbrough 1-0 16 38 34
Reading West Brom 0-2 10 31 42
Rotherham Birmingham 0-1 10 34 38
Sheff Wed Bristol City 1-0 11 41 31
Stoke Norwich 0-1 14 25 49
Wigan Preston 0-1 14 35 37
  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw

Championship, R43 (19 Apr, 2019)

RED, the University of Reading Scorecasting Model (and pick your own acronym…), continues to churn out forecasts for less important football matches, despite it’s new-found fame. It has given us the following forecasts for R43 (19 April) of the English Championship:

Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Birmingham Derby 1-0 11 42 31
Bolton Aston Villa 0-1 17 17 61
Bristol City Reading 1-0 15 55 21
Leeds Wigan 1-0 16 63 16
Middlesbrough Stoke 1-0 24 47 26
Millwall Brentford 1-0 14 42 31
Norwich Sheff Wed 2-1 10 59 18
Preston Ipswich 1-0 15 62 16
QPR Blackburn 1-0 11 41 31
Sheff Utd Notts Forest 1-0 15 60 18
Swansea Rotherham 1-0 14 56 20
West Brom Hull 2-1 9 54 22
  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw

Lower Leagues, R43 (April 19-20)

Happy Easter! We’ve been a little distracted this week, but here are our lower league forecasts…

League One:

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Accrington Luton 0-1 14% 18% 59%
AFC Wim Bristol R 1-0 16% 38% 34%
Barnsley Shrewsbury 1-0 17% 59% 18%
Burton Portsmouth 1-1 13% 36% 36%
Coventry Bradford 1-0 14% 59% 18%
Fleetwood Peterboro 1-0 9% 43% 29%
Gillingham Plymouth 2-1 9% 45% 29%
Oxford Charlton 0-1 17% 30% 42%
Rochdale Wycombe 2-1 8% 40% 32%
Scunthorpe Blackpool 0-1 14% 32% 40%
Sunderland Doncaster 1-0 12% 50% 24%
Walsall Southend 1-0 8% 40% 32%

League Two:

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Cambridge U Swindon 0-1 10% 31% 42%
Carlisle Lincoln 0-1 11% 26% 47%
Cheltenham Oldham 2-1 7% 40% 33%
Colchester Grimsby 1-0 18% 46% 27%
Crewe Yeovil 1-0 14% 58% 19%
Exeter Crawley 1-0 14% 59% 18%
Mansfield Morecambe 1-0 17% 61% 17%
Newport Co Bury 1-2 10% 34% 38%
Northampton Macclesfield 1-0 11% 51% 23%
Notts Co MK Dons 0-1 11% 27% 46%
Port Vale Stevenage 1-0 14% 40% 32%
Tranmere Forest Green 1-0 12% 46% 27%

Premier League, R35 (20-22 Apr)

This week the “Super Computer” (a.k.a. RED) is directly taking on a football forecasting guru, Mark Lawrenson (a.k.a. Lawro) on the BBC Sport website and on Football Focus (BBC One, Saturday 12.00).

You can see how the forecasts compare below:

Premier League predictions – week 35
Result Lawro RED
SATURDAY
Man City v Tottenham x-x 2-0 2-0
Bournemouth v Fulham x-x 3-0 2-1
Huddersfield v Watford x-x 1-1 0-1
West Ham v Leicester x-x 2-1 1-0
Wolves v Brighton x-x 2-0 1-0
Newcastle v Southampton x-x 2-1 1-0
SUNDAY
Everton v Man Utd x-x 0-2 0-1
Arsenal v Crystal Palace x-x 2-0 1-0
Cardiff v Liverpool x-x 0-2 0-2
MONDAY
Chelsea v Burnley x-x 2-0 2-0

A correct result (picking a win, draw or defeat) is worth 10 points. The exact score earns 40 points.

Champions League, Quarter Finals, 2nd Legs (April 16-17)

Given their away second-leg exploits in the last 16, the quarter finals are far from decided. The Model, or RED as she know prefers to be know as, thinks they are decided though. Barca to beat United 1-0 (20%), Juve to finish Ajax off 1-0 (17%).

Forecast Win (%)
Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Tue Barcelona Man Utd 1-0 20% 54% 22%
Tue Juventus Ajax 1-0 17% 60% 18%
Wed Man City Tottenham 1-0 11% 62% 16%
Wed Porto Liverpool 1-2 9% 24% 50%

As always, we post the scoreline forecasts of Jean-Louis Foulley for Champions League matches. We differ only on margins, with the exception of Liverpool’s visit to Portugal. The first time we went head to head with Jean-Louis, Edith got a mauling. We will soon evaluate our forecasts again and post about that.

    Win
Foulley F-Score P(R) P(H) P(A)
Barcelona Man Utd 2-0 12% 66% 14%
Juventus Ajax 2-0 11% 67% 14%
Man City Tottenham 2-0 10% 62% 18%
Porto Liverpool 1-1 12% 36% 38%

Championship, R42 (13 Apr, 2019)

The Model (a.k.a. RED — yes, that’s right, the computer told us its name) has given us the following forecasts for R42 (13 April) of the English Championship:

Forecast Win (%)
Score Pr (%) P(H) P(A)
Aston Villa Bristol City 1-0 12 49 25
Derby Bolton 1-0 17 65 15
Ipswich Birmingham 0-1 14 29 44
Leeds Sheff Wed 1-0 13 50 24
Middlesbrough Hull 1-0 16 39 33
Notts Forest Blackburn 1-0 13 50 24
QPR Swansea 0-1 11 30 43
Reading Brentford 1-1 13 36 36
Sheff Utd Millwall 1-0 15 61 17
Stoke Rotherham 1-0 20 52 23
West Brom Preston 2-1 10 48 25
Wigan Norwich 0-1 9 21 54
  • The Forecast scoreline, with the % chance of that happening
  • The % chance of a win by the Home team, P(H), or Away team, P(A) (with one hundred minus those two numbers giving the % chance of a draw

Lower Leagues, R42 (April 13)

Lower league football fans are eternal optimists. They have to be, after all, to keep persisting with their team, who almost always disappoint. Because it’s just that one time that they don’t, that everything goes right, that keeps them going. A lousy run of form has put paid to the play-off hopes of Coventry and Blackpool, but Peterborough? Five points off the pace with a game in hand? Oh, the hope. Unfortunately, the Model thinks they’ll have a mountain to climb come 5pm Saturday, after they lose 1-0 at Blackpool (11%), while Doncaster will beat Plymouth 2-1 (10%).

Forecast Win (%)
League One Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Accrington Walsall 1-0 11% 47% 27%
Barnsley Fleetwood 1-0 18% 57% 19%
Blackpool Peterborough 1-0 11% 46% 27%
Bristol R Bradford 1-0 16% 59% 18%
Charlton Luton 0-1 17% 33% 39%
Doncaster Plymouth 2-1 10% 57% 19%
Gillingham Shrewsbury 1-0 10% 41% 31%
Oxford AFC Wim 1-0 18% 51% 24%
Portsmouth Rochdale 2-0 11% 69% 13%
Scunthorpe Burton 0-1 8% 28% 46%
Southend Wycombe 2-1 9% 44% 29%
Sunderland Coventry 1-0 20% 62% 17%
Forecast Win (%)
League Two Score PR(%) P(H) P(A)
Bury Colchester 2-1 10% 55% 21%
Cambridge Newport 1-1 12% 35% 37%
Crewe Notts Co 2-1 10% 52% 23%
Exeter Port Vale 1-0 15% 49% 25%
F Green Macc T 2-1 10% 54% 22%
Lincoln Cheltenham 2-0 10% 59% 18%
Morecambe Grimsby 1-0 11% 43% 30%
Northampton Mansfield 0-1 11% 32% 40%
Oldham Swindon 1-0 10% 47% 26%
Stevenage Carlisle 1-0 9% 37% 35%
Tranmere MK Dons 1-0 8% 44% 29%
Yeovil Crawley 1-0 12% 42% 31%