Scorecasting Economists

Championship 16 Jan 2021

Championship 16 Jan 2021

At the moment, three of the games listed in our table below are currently ‘off’ due to Covid.

Coventry v Sheffield Wednesday; QPR v Wycombe; Reading v Brentford

In terms of the Championship matches that are on today, our model matches up to bookmakers on outcomes and favoured teams, the only differences are in the extent to which teams are favoured.

Middlesbrough v Bristol City

We have Middlesbrough on at least 2 for expected goals, at 68.5% for a win, and a 2-0 win as the most likely outcome (a 2-0 scoreline is at 11.5%). Bookmakers only have Middlesbrough on 52.2% but still only have Bristol City at 20.2%.

Derby County v Rotherham

Derby now have Wayne Rooney as permanent manager (or as permanent as a football manager can be!) and are also clear favourites against Rotherham (54.4% our model; 48.5% bookmakers).

Rooney is apparently ready to ‘roll up his sleeves’, although I would hope it needs a bit more than that to succeed https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/55682759

We have a 1-0 home win as the most likely score. Derby also at 1.66 on expected goals and of course only 1 place ahead of Rotherham.

 

Premier League 16 Jan 2021

Premier League 16 Jan 2021

Liverpool v Man Utd

Top of the table clash here but our model heavily favours Liverpool at 61.7% with Liverpool also on 1.82 for expected goals. Bookmakers disagree slightly having Liverpool at only 48.2% to win (see Mean Odds column in the table below).

However whilst Utd are top, 3rd placed Man City have won their last 4 games and are starting to look serious again.

Man City v Crystal Palace.

We have Crystal Palace at 4% to win with bookmakers placing them at 5.7%. Man City on almost 2 3/4 expected goals and a 15.5% chance of a 2-0 home win.

Wolves v West Brom

Not very often we get a team in the lower half of the league gets to above two on expected goals and has at least a 60% chance of winning. West Brom have been so poor lately, that even with Allardyce that Wolves are overwhelming favourites here for what is the early Saturday kick-off.

Villa v Everton

This is the one match where bookmakers disagree with us on which team is favoured. Our model predicts a 1-1 as the most likely score but slightly favours Villa (at 41.9%). Bookmakers on the other hand favour Everton at 48.6%. I think both teams are currently performing better than predicted at the start of the season (Everton are now 5th and Villa 8th) so a draw feels about right.

 

Premier League 16 Jan 2021

Championship 12/1/2021

Championship 12/1/2021

There are actually only 2 midweek matches for the English Championship tonight as tomorrow’s Brentford v Bristol City game is suspended.

Clear 1-0 wins predicted by our model for both Bournemouth and Luton Town in their home matches against Millwall and QPR.

In fact, both home teams have almost the same likelihood of winning in our model (58%) with the only difference being that bookmakers favour Luton considerably less than we do (see Mean Odds, home).

QPR haven’t won in 5 games so it’s hardly surprising the model predicts them to lose. There is a 14.9% chance of a 1-0 win for Luton.

 

Premier League 12 Jan – 14 Jan 2021

Premier League 12 Jan – 14 Jan 2021

Football carries on rightly or wrongly tonight and this mid-week selection of matches feels somewhat odd, with some top teams missing (Liverpool and Chelsea for instance).

Fulham are upset that their match against Tottenham has been re-arranged to essentially replace the Aston Villa v Tottenham game https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/55634082

Who can blame them? It’s also thrown our model out slightly which still show the Villa match below.

In terms of the football itself, Man City are looking likely for a big win against Brighton – the scorecast has this at 2-0 as the most likely score but both our model and bookmakers have City as overwhelming favourites (over 80% chance of a win from both our model and bookmakers). City on just below 3 expected goals.

Arsenal are also predicted to win 2-0 against Crystal Palace. Arsenal fans will probably suggest this is likely to curse them but they have managed to win their last 3 games so this is a pretty reasonable prediction! They are also on more than 2 for expected goals which hasn’t happened for a while, I think.

Some of the fixtures showing below are either not on, or not scheduled and this is just due to how we collected the data at the beginning of the season. Liverpool v Burnley is not a game happening this week but Burnley are currently playing Man Utd as I type this.

It’s also meant that I was still typing this blog whilst Sheffield Utd had kicked off against Newcastle (it’s predicted as 1-1, with our model slightly favouring Sheffield a bit more than bookmakers do).

***update (later in the evening on 12 Jan!)*** The image below now includes Tottenham v Fulham and Tottenham are predicted to win 2-0 with Fulham having just a 12% chance for a win with bookmakers and 8.7% with our model.

English Championship –  New Year 2021

English Championship –  New Year 2021

Overall our model looks pretty close to bookmaker odds this week, with one fixture showing different likely outcomes. To check this see ‘outcome probs’ in the table below and bookmaker ‘mean odds’.

Sheff Wed v Derby

Only one fixture actually on New Year’s Day and that is Sheffield Wednesday v Derby.

Derby have won 2 of their last three, as have Wednesday as they both seek to climb out of or away from the relegation zone.

In terms of expected goals there is almost nothing in it with 1.15 v 1.23. We have a draw predicted but bookmakers disagree very slightly on the extent of outcomes (favouring Derby by 0.2%, whereas we favour them by 4%).

Stoke v Bournemouth

The rest of the Championship is kicking off on Saturday.

Our model predicts a 1-1 draw for this game between Stoke and Bournemouth but there is a slight difference in our outcome probabilities  and bookmaker mean odds.

Our model very marginally favours Stoke (by 1.6%) but bookmakers clearly favour Bournemouth at 42.2%).

Huddersfield v Reading

Doesn’t look that great for Reading tomorrow against Huddersfield in terms of our model or bookmaker odds (41.3% Huddersfield win from our model and 38.2% bookmakers) but the most likely score is a 1-1 draw.

Premier League January 1st and beyond

Premier League January 1st

Happy New Year!

Looks like a pretty close set of games for the New Year’s matches. No teams reach 2 on expected goals which has rarely happened in this league, this season.

Our scorecast model is very close this week to bookmakers in terms of how likely teams are to win (or lose).

Man Utd V Aston Villa

Nearly every week this season at least one team has been rated above 2 on expected goals.

This week the closest are Man Utd with 1.93 against Aston Villa. Both teams have won 3 and drawn 2 of their last 5 matches and whilst Aston Villa have scored 3 less than Utd, they have also let in 9 fewer goals. 

The 13.1% chance of a win for Villa in our model and 21.9% mean odds with bookmakers suggests Villa won’t do well but Man Utd’s defence has not looked good for a while so I think they will struggle against such a well organised side that is also in form. There is a 13.6% chance for a Utd 1-0 win and a 13.2% chance for a 2-0 win.

Chelsea v Man City

Chelsea v Man City looks close enough (we have a 1-1 draw predicted as the most likely result) but our model has very close ratings for both teams when compared to bookmakers – we have Chelsea at 29% to win, bookmakers only .3% higher. We have Man City to win at 43.2%, they have them 1.1% higher.

Tottenham v Leeds

Our model and bookmakers clearly agree on favouring Tottenham over Leeds (55.6% Tottenham win in our model, and 55.2% Tottenham, bookmakers mean odds).

The real question may be, can the slightly more defensive Tottenham handle the more attack minded Leeds?

Tactically this is probably the most interesting match of the weekend. Our model predicts a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome and that actually feels like it might be about right.

Brighton v Wolves

The only match where there is a significant difference in terms of outcomes between our model and bookmakers this week is Brighton v Wolves. Our model favours Wolves (37.2%), whereas bookmakers favour Brighton (38.1%).  only 0.05% between the two teams on expected goals too. The most likely outcomes in our model are a draw.

Lower League Forecasts, December 29

England’s lower leagues carry on after Boxing Day’s matches. The busy fixture list carries on, with matches tonight and then on the weekend.

Just five matches in League One, but we’ve produced forecasts for when a number of the matches originally scheduled for today are re-played.

In League Two, Oldham go to Grimsby looking for a club record 8th consecutive away win in all competitions. A win would equal their league record of five consecutive away wins. Grimsby are in terrible form, and have lost a manager. Oldham have beaten in-form teams on the road during their run, but it all points to a Grimsby win, in reality, if not in the probabilities (we have Oldham 43% to win, as do the bookies).

Championship 29/12/20-30/12/20

Championship 29/12/20 – 30/12/20

The highest expected goals score for this set of matches is 1.79 for Norwich, which pretty much sums up how close the English Championship is. As usual a number of 1-1 draws are predicted.

Our model is again pretty close to bookmakers Mean Odds (see table below) being only a few percentage points out in most cases and largely agreeing on the likely outcomes.

Matches where there are slight differences in the teams favoured between our model and bookmakers are the first match at 5.30pm – Birmingham City v Derby, Huddersfield v Blackburn, and Millwall v Watford but this last match is postponed.

Sheffield Wednesday have just sacked Tony Pulis so it will be interesting to see if they can get a draw against Middlesbrough as our model suggests, as before that there wasn’t much in it (32.6% Sheff Weds v 41% Middlesbrough).

Reading have a tough game away to second-placed Swansea, although Reading are one of only 4 teams that have so far scored more than 30 goals. Our model heavily favours Swansea at 56.9% with a 1-0 win for Swansea predicted.

 

 

Premier League 28 December 2020

Premier League 28 December 2020 – 30 December 2020

Hardly any fans can attend matches across the UK with large areas now in lockdown but the matches don’t stop and we have more of it from 3pm today.

Crystal Palace v Leicester is the first match, with our model favouring Leicester (49.5% for a win) but predicting a draw as the most likely outcome.

Bookmaker mean odds are very close to our scorecasts for this match (48.4% for a Leicester win)

Nothing to chose between West Brom v Leeds with 36.7% for a home win – 36.4% away win in our model, although bookmakers heavily favour Leeds at 47%.

Our model heavily favours Man Utd against Wolves (63.5% for a Man Utd win) with bookmakers agreeing at 60.5% for a Man Utd win.

Wolves have struggled to score so far this season with only 15 goals to Man Utd’s 30 but Utd have the leakiest defence in the top ten with 23 goals conceded so this game could turn out a bit different to predictions.

Elsewhere our model matches quite closely to bookmaker mean odds.

Amazingly Everton are second in the league at the moment but both our model and bookmakers predict a Man City win in tonight’s game (15% chance of a 1-0 City win and 12.5% for a 2-0 City win – see Away Wins in the table below).

 

Championship 26 December (Boxing Day)

Championship 26 December (Boxing Day)

Football returns to the Championship after a short break.

Sadly for Middlesbrough their match is now postponed (sad for them, because our model predicted them to win 2-0 and gave them a 64% chance of winning).

Compared to the Premier League, the Championship is much closer though overall with no other team scoring above 2 on expected goals (see first column in the table below).

Bookmakers give slightly better odds of a Reading win against Luton than our model (44.8%, bookmakers and 39.1 from our model).

Model still predicts a 1-1 as the most likely result.

No much difference elsewhere in terms of our predictions and mean odds at bookmakers and only one match where bookmakers actually completely favour a different team to our model.

Barnsley v Huddersfield for instance our model gives almost the same odds as bookmakers (43.9% and 43.8% for a Barnsley win; 29.2% and 27.2% for a Huddersfield win).

There is one match where a slightly different outcome is predicted and that is Coventry v Stoke, where our model favours Coventy (43.3% to Stoke at 28.8%) whilst bookmakers are favouring Stoke at 36.9% to Coventry on 32.6%). Not much in it though. And our most likely result is a 1-1 draw.