The Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Forecast 2011

Tropical cyclones (known as hurricanes in the North Atlantic) have huge economical and social effects including destruction of properties, influencing the price of gas and oil, and can cause substantial loss of life. When I decided to do my PhD, starting last October, on Tropical cyclones and climate change, motivation wasn’t hard to come by. … Continue reading “The Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Forecast 2011”

Flooding, Uncertainty and Public Understanding

As many of the rest of you, I’ve been following the extreme weather in the south and south-eastern United States with some interest over the last few weeks. A nice discussion of the links between the record tornado outbreaks, synoptic situation and very warm conditions in the Gulf of Mexico can be found in Jeff … Continue reading “Flooding, Uncertainty and Public Understanding”

How better time travel will improve weather and climate models

From a functional perspective, the task of predicting future weather and climate may be reduced to the following iterative procedure. First, given the state of the atmosphere, ocean, and other Earth-system components at any time (the input), use the governing equations to compute the state at a slightly later time (the output). Then, repeat the … Continue reading “How better time travel will improve weather and climate models”