Ice-sheet mass and sea level rise

As the popular climate change debate makes the transition from “is it happening?” to “what will the impacts be?”, one of the more controversial issues has been that of sea level. The dramatic collapse of parts of the Antarctic ice-shelf and the speed-up of Greenland’s glaciers have led to suggestions that the last IPCC report’s … Continue reading “Ice-sheet mass and sea level rise”

A cold stratospheric spring

In week 10 Mike Blackburn will be writing a blog on early analysis on what was an interesting season in the troposphere. In this blog I’ll give a quick update on the northern hemisphere stratospheric winter and its implications for ozone as we enter spring. Unlike recent stratospheric winters, with dramatic mid-winter major stratospheric sudden … Continue reading “A cold stratospheric spring”

Can the British public understand probabilities?

This is a question that appears again and again for people who work with forecasting. These days forecast centres do not produce one forecast, they produce a set or ensemble of forecasts, which is supposed to reflect the uncertainty in the forecast. This means that rather than giving a woolly statement such as “there will … Continue reading “Can the British public understand probabilities?”