Can the British public understand probabilities?

This is a question that appears again and again for people who work with forecasting. These days forecast centres do not produce one forecast, they produce a set or ensemble of forecasts, which is supposed to reflect the uncertainty in the forecast. This means that rather than giving a woolly statement such as “there will … Continue reading “Can the British public understand probabilities?”

Why are we not getting a summer forecast from the Met Office?

It’s mid-May and the weather has been okay, if a bit cold. But the big question on people’s minds at this time of year must be: What’s the summer going to be like in the UK? Are we going to get as much rain as the previous three years? In the past one source of … Continue reading “Why are we not getting a summer forecast from the Met Office?”