Author Archives: Stephen Burt

On the predictability of European summer weather patterns

Posted on 11 June, 2018 by Stephen Burt

By Albert Ossό Forecasts of summer weather patterns months in advance would be of great value for a wide range of applications. However, the current seasonal dynamic model forecasts for European summers have very little skill (Arribas et al. 2011). … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Climate modelling, Seasonal forecasting | Leave a comment

Who discovered the Madden-Julian Oscillation?

Posted on 4 June, 2018 by Stephen Burt

By Simon Peatman The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is one of the most important meteorological phenomena in the tropics. With a timescale of 30–90 days it bridges the gap between weather and climate (Zhang, 2013), potentially providing predictability over several weeks. … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) | Leave a comment

Evaluating convective-permitting models over South Africa

Posted on 21 May, 2018 by Stephen Burt

By Will Keat Several operational forecasting centres around the world now run convective-permitting models (CPMs) to forecast rainfall. These kilometre-scale models are sufficiently high  resolution to allow convection to be resolved explicitly (i.e. without the need for parameterisation), and have … Continue reading →

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Climate change in the Mediterranean Sea

Posted on 14 May, 2018 by Stephen Burt

By Fanny Adloff The Mediterranean is the largest semi-enclosed sea on our planet. Acting as a miniature ocean, this basin is appropriate to study climate change impact on the ocean. The residence time of the Mediterranean waters – of about … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate change, Climate modelling, Environmental hazards, Oceans | Leave a comment

The “size” of the NWP/DA problem

Posted on 8 May, 2018 by Stephen Burt

By Javier Amezcua There is a professor in the University of Reading that likes to say that the Data Assimilation (DA) problem in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is larger than the size of the universe (estimated to be around 1080 … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Numerical modelling, Weather forecasting | Tagged | Leave a comment

Hidden in the clouds

Posted on 30 April, 2018 by Stephen Burt

By Nicolas Bellouin Our atmosphere contains varying amounts of tiny liquid or solid particles called aerosols. Some aerosols have a natural origin, like the mineral dust particles that form sandstorms, or the sea spray emitted by breaking waves. Other aerosols … Continue reading →

Posted in Aerosols, Atmospheric chemistry, earth observation, Remote sensing | Leave a comment

U.K. Spring Weather and the Natural World

Posted on 23 April, 2018 by Stephen Burt

By Pete Inness We are now just over half way through April, so about half way through meteorological Spring which is defined as March, April and May. Despite the warm weather of the last few days it’s been a fairly … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Climate change, Phenology | Leave a comment

Skirting the Issue

Posted on 16 April, 2018 by Stephen Burt

By Geoff Wadge During a major explosive volcanic eruption a set of three main processes transfers mass and heat from the solid earth to the atmosphere. These three processes are: a gas thrust (jet) extending up from the volcanic vent, … Continue reading →

Posted in Aerosols, Environmental hazards, Environmental physics | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Playful floods

Posted on 9 April, 2018 by Stephen Burt

By Sanita Vetra-Carvalho Flooding is no fun for those who have been affected by it. However, being able to ‘experience’ flooding in some sense is one of the best ways to communicate flood risks as well as the potential solutions to … Continue reading →

Posted in Environmental hazards, Flooding, Hydrology | Tagged | Leave a comment

Estimating the risks of climate change: what are the effects of climate policy?

Posted on 26 March, 2018 by Stephen Burt

By Nigel Arnell I am writing this from Beijing, where the 13th National People’s Congress has just reaffirmed the Chinese commitment to control future emissions of greenhouse gases and meet the aspirations of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. This … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Climate change, Climate modelling, Conferences, Environmental hazards, Greenhouse gases | Tagged | Leave a comment