Category Archives: Weather forecasting

Disentangling forecast errors

Posted on 14 September, 2015 by Stephen Burt

By Oscar Martínez-Alvarado In a previous blog entry I discussed the factors contributing to errors in weather forecasts. These factors were sensitivity to initial conditions, incomplete knowledge of the atmosphere’s state and incomplete representation of the laws of physics governing the … Continue reading →

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The hard task of understanding forecast errors

Posted on 27 July, 2015 by Stephen Burt

By Oscar Martínez-Alvarado For the past few months I have been thinking about differences between what the forecasts predict and what happens in reality and trying to understand how and why forecast errors develop. These questions might seem simple, but are … Continue reading →

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I blame Spain and France!

Posted on 13 July, 2015 by Stephen Burt

By Ross Reynolds I was concerned to read this warning published recently in a national newspaper, partly because to roast me would require perhaps 200 °C for quite a few hours, but to boil the air (see lower down the … Continue reading →

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Aviation, weather and climate

Posted on 6 July, 2015 by Stephen Burt

By Keith Shine Last week, the Government’s Airports Commission published its Final Report with recommendations on future UK airport capacity, which made headline news. It is leading to renewed debate about aviation growth and its impact on people’s lives, the economy … Continue reading →

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Making the most of the forecast

Posted on 20 April, 2015 by Stephen Burt

By Andrew Charlton-Perez Although it’s something we all often take for granted, our ability routinely and skilfully to predict the weather several days in advance is fantastic evidence of the advances in meteorology over the last 50 years. Measures of … Continue reading →

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How our electricity supply depends on the weather

Posted on 23 March, 2015 by Stephen Burt

by Dirk Cannon                                          Department of Meteorology homepage “It was one of those March days when the sun shines hot and … Continue reading →

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Forecasting eclipse weather

Posted on 16 March, 2015 by Stephen Burt

By Peter Clark                                    Department of Meteorology homepage Our weather is driven by energy radiating from the sun. The annual cycle of the earth’s … Continue reading →

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Early warnings of the May 2014 Balkan floods

Posted on 2 March, 2015 by Stephen Burt

By Hannah Cloke                                   Department of Meteorology Weeks of rainfall followed by significant rainstorms between 13-16 May 2014 led to widespread flooding in the … Continue reading →

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More on uncertainties …

Posted on 26 January, 2015 by Stephen Burt

By Peter Jan van Leeuwen As discussed in last week’s blog by Javier Amezcua, uncertainties are paramount in weather and climate forecasting. In fact, they are paramount in every branch of science. In weather and climate forecasting these uncertainties are … Continue reading →

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On certainties (or the lack thereof)

Posted on 19 January, 2015 by Stephen Burt

By Javier Amezcua Uncertainty is an unavoidable element in numerical weather prediction (NWP). It makes its appearance, however, even before engaging on the task of predicting (i.e. determining the future state of the atmosphere): it arises from the very attempt … Continue reading →

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