Category Archives: Seasonal forecasting

Cycling In All Weathers

Posted on 22 May, 2023 by danaallen

By: David Brayshaw In a few weeks’ time, I’ll be taking some time off for an adventure: spending 3-weeks cycling the entire 3,400 km of this year’s Tour de France (TdF) route.  I’ll be with a team riding just a … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate Services, Environmental hazards, Seasonal forecasting, subseasonal forecasting | Leave a comment

Outlook For The Upcoming UK Winter

Posted on 4 October, 2022 by danaallen

By: Christopher O’Reilly In this post I discuss the outlook for the 2022/23 winter from a UK perspective: what do the forecasts predict and what physical drivers might influence the upcoming winter?  An important winter  The price of utilities has … Continue reading →

Posted in Atmospheric circulation, Climate, Climate modelling, ENSO, North Atlantic, Oceans, Seasonal forecasting, Stratosphere, Teleconnections | Leave a comment

Co-Producing New Sub-Seasonal Weather Forecasts in Africa

Posted on 23 May, 2022 by danaallen

By: Linda Hirons Weather-related extremes affect the lives and livelihoods of millions of people across tropical Africa. Access to reliable, actionable weather information is key to improving the resilience of African populations and economies. Specifically, at the extended sub-seasonal timescale … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Co-production, drought, Energy meteorology, Forecasting Testbed, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Predictability, Renewable energy, Seasonal forecasting, subseasonal forecasting, Tropical convection, Weather forecasting | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Seasonal Forecasting and the 2018 European Heatwave

Posted on 26 November, 2018 by danaallen

By Len Shaffrey The summer of 2018 has been one of the warmest on record in the UK and Europe. Warm temperatures over the summer led to impacts on agriculture, water resources and human health. One interesting question is how predictable … Continue reading →

Posted in Atlantic, Atmospheric circulation, Climate, Climate change, Climate modelling, Environmental hazards, Historical climatology, Hydrology, Numerical modelling, Seasonal forecasting, Waves | Leave a comment

Is it a normal season this year for tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific?

Posted on 19 November, 2018 by danaallen

By Xiangbo Feng  The Western North Pacific (WNP) is the most active area for tropical cyclones (TCs).  The number of TCs occurred in the WNP so far (end of October) this year is 26 – just the average number of … Continue reading →

Posted in Atmospheric circulation, Climate, Climate modelling, earth observation, ENSO, Equatorial waves, Historical climatology, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Numerical modelling, Seasonal forecasting, Tropical cyclones, Waves, Weather forecasting, Western North Pacific, Wind | Leave a comment

On the predictability of European summer weather patterns

Posted on 11 June, 2018 by Stephen Burt

By Albert Ossό Forecasts of summer weather patterns months in advance would be of great value for a wide range of applications. However, the current seasonal dynamic model forecasts for European summers have very little skill (Arribas et al. 2011). … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Climate modelling, Seasonal forecasting | Leave a comment

Impacts of climate variability and change on the energy sector: A case study for winter 2009/10

Posted on 11 December, 2017 by Stephen Burt

By Emma Suckling Secure and reliable energy supplies are an essential part of modern economic life. But the national and global infrastructures that deliver energy are changing rapidly in the face of new and unprecedented challenges, including the need to … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Climate change, Climate modelling, Renewable energy, Seasonal forecasting | Leave a comment

Forecasting the Indian monsoon

Posted on 23 October, 2017 by Stephen Burt

By Arathy Menon The South Asian monsoon, which brings rainfall to India and the neighbouring countries during the boreal summer season, is a major atmospheric circulation system. India receives more than 80% of its annual rainfall during the monsoon season, generally … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Climate modelling, Monsoons, Numerical modelling, Seasonal forecasting | Leave a comment

El Niño in West and Central Africa

Posted on 10 October, 2016 by Stephen Burt

By Chimene Daleu   What is El Niño, how often does it occur, and why is everyone so concerned this year? El Niño is the warming phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During an El Niño event, the … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, ENSO, Seasonal forecasting | Leave a comment

Can we improve the way we forecast the weather in three weeks time?

Posted on 9 November, 2015 by Stephen Burt

By Andrew Charlton-Perez This week at the University of Reading is enhancement week and I’ve also been spending some time learning about an area of science which I don’t know so well and which is developing fast at the ECMWF … Continue reading →

Posted in Conferences, Numerical modelling, Seasonal forecasting | Tagged , | Leave a comment