Category Archives: Predictability

Weather vs. Climate Prediction

Posted on 12 September, 2022 by danaallen

By: Annika Reintges Imagine you are planning a birthday party in 2 weeks. You might check the weather forecast for that date to decide whether you can gather outside for a barbeque, or whether you should reserve a table in … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Climate modelling, Predictability, Weather forecasting | Tagged | Leave a comment

Forecasting Rapid Intensification In Hurricanes And Typhoons.

Posted on 20 June, 2022 by danaallen

By: Peter Jan Leeuwen We all know the devastating power of hurricanes, typhoons, and their Southern Hemisphere counterparts. It is crucial that we predict their behaviour accurately to avoid loss of life and to better guide large-scale infrastructure operations. Although … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Predictability, Tropical cyclones | Tagged | Leave a comment

Co-Producing New Sub-Seasonal Weather Forecasts in Africa

Posted on 23 May, 2022 by danaallen

By: Linda Hirons Weather-related extremes affect the lives and livelihoods of millions of people across tropical Africa. Access to reliable, actionable weather information is key to improving the resilience of African populations and economies. Specifically, at the extended sub-seasonal timescale … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Co-production, Energy meteorology, Forecasting Testbed, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Predictability, Renewable energy, Seasonal forecasting, subseasonal forecasting, Tropical convection, Weather forecasting | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Do urban heat islands provide thunderstorm predictability?

Posted on 28 September, 2020 by danaallen

By: Suzanne Gray  The UK and the rest of western Europe experienced a heatwave in the middle of August 2020 with temperatures exceeding 30oC in Reading. Fortunately for us this was broken by a heavy downpour on the afternoon of … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Predictability, Thunder Storms, Urban meteorology | Leave a comment

From Indonesia to the British Isles: using El Niño and weather patterns in the tropics to help predict North Atlantic and European weather

Posted on 10 February, 2020 by danaallen

By: Robert Lee The winter weather in the UK and Europe can be split into different patterns based on the large-scale flow in the atmosphere. A commonly used method is to use a type of machine learning algorithm – a … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, ENSO, Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Predictability, subseasonal forecasting | Leave a comment

How to analyse your forecast diary properly

Posted on 14 January, 2020 by danaallen

By: Jochen Broecker As you are reading a science blog, I am sure you are interested in science, and either as a parent or during your childhood you will have seen these books aimed at children interested in the natural … Continue reading →

Posted in Predictability, Statistics, Uncategorized, Weather forecasting | Leave a comment

Don’t (always) blame the weather forecaster

Posted on 28 October, 2019 by danaallen

By: Ross Bannister There are (I am sure) numerous metaphors that suggest that a small, almost immeasurable event, can have a catastrophic outcome – that adding the proverbial straw to the load of the camel will break its back. In 1972, … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Climate modelling, Numerical modelling, Predictability | Tagged | Leave a comment

Effect of the North Atlantic Ocean on the Northeast Asian climate: variability and predictability

Posted on 19 August, 2019 by danaallen

By: Paul-Arthur Monerie North East Asia has warmed substantially after the mid-1990s leading to an increase in temperature extremes and to societal impacts (Dong et al., 2016). Predicting the variability of the North East Asian climate is therefore of primordial interest … Continue reading →

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What do we do with weather forecasts?

Posted on 20 May, 2019 by danaallen

By: Peter Clark As I sat in the Kia Oval in Kennington having taken a day off to watch the first One Day International between England and Pakistan, I had plenty of time to appreciate the accuracy and utility of … Continue reading →

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The North Atlantic Oscillation and the Signal to Noise Paradox

Posted on 4 March, 2019 by danaallen

By: Daniel Hodson  The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a key driver of European weather. It is an Atlantic pressure dipole (Figure 1a) and varies over time, with some interesting long-term trends (Figure 1b). The NAO directly affects EU climate … Continue reading →

Posted in Climate, Predictability, Stratosphere | Leave a comment